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DTN Midday Grain Comments     08/04 10:42

   Corn Slightly Lower, Soybeans Slightly Higher Midday Wednesday

   Corn is 2 to 3 cents lower, soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher and wheat is 1 
to 14 cents lower.

David M. Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

   MARKET SUMMARY:

   The U.S. stock market is mixed with the Dow down 275 points. The U.S. Dollar 
Index is 0.20 higher. Interest rate products are mostly lower. Energies are 
mostly lower with crude off $1.60. Livestock trade is firmer. Precious metals 
are weaker with gold down $5.70.

   CORN:

   Corn trade is 2 to 3 cents lower with trade continuing to migrate to the 
$5.50 area as range-bound action continues with flat spread action and little 
fresh news. Ethanol margins will continue to see pressure with energies 
sliding, along with the coming shift to cheaper fall blends, while corn remains 
rangebound with the weekly report showing production down 1,000 barrels a day 
and stocks down 84,000 barrels. Brazil will continue to move along with the end 
of the second crop season and estimates still trending lower. Corn basis 
continues to fade with cash inverses likely to see more pressure as early 
harvest gets going to the south. On the September contract, resistance remains 
at $5.53 20-day moving average, which we are below at midday, with further 
support at the lower Bollinger Band at $5.33.

   SOYBEANS:

   Soybeans are 4 to 6 cents higher at midday with trade finding light buying 
after washing out on Tuesday with improvement expected in the extended forecast 
and meal leading products Wednesday. Meal is $5.00 to $6.00 higher and oil is 
0.70 cent to 0.80 cent lower. The weather pattern looks dry short term with 
better rains the second week. South America has a declining ship line up while 
the run in canola values turned more sideways, keeping a lid on oil values as 
well, along with crude oil weakness. Basis levels have been flat to weaker in 
recent days. On the September soybean chart, resistance is at the 20-day at 
$13.66, which we fell below last week, with the lower Bollinger Band at $13.17 
as support with $13.00 below that.

   WHEAT:

   Wheat trade is 1 to 14 cents lower with Chicago action leading as winter 
wheats fade from the fresh highs scored again Wednesday morning. The dollar has 
settled into a range around 92 points on the index. The U.S. has pushed above 
world values, which should limit exports and upside short term unless 
continental values can catch up further. KC holds at 22-cent discount to 
Chicago, widening a bit with Minneapolis at a 182-cent premium, fading back to 
the lower end of the range. KC September on the chart has support at the 20-day 
at $6.51 with resistance the upper Bollinger Band at $7.17.

   David Fiala can be reached at dfiala@futuresone.com 

   Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala




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