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DTN Midday Grain Comments     03/30 10:58

   Grains Mixed at Midday

   Corn is 4 to 5 cents lower, soybeans are 1 to 2 cents higher, and wheat is 3 
to 6 cents lower.

By David Fiala
DTN Contributing Analyst

 General Comments



   The U.S. stock market is firmer with the Dow up 490 points as active trade 
continues. The dollar index is 70 points higher. Interest rate products are 
mostly higher. Energies are lower with crude $1.20 lower. Livestock trade is 
mostly lower. Precious metals are weaker with gold down $2.50.


   Corn trade is 4 to 5 cents lower with trade heading for the lower end of the 
range in pre-report action. Ethanol margins remain very poor, with more plants 
shutting down, with ethanol still trading at a 45-50 cent premium to unleaded 
as demand collapses with crude scoring 18-year lows overnight. Corn basis will 
likely continue to see pressure except for export oriented locations. Rains 
have worked across much of the belt short term to slow early field work with 
the extended forecast looking drier. Weekly export inspections jumped to 1.269 
million metric tons. On the report, the average guess is for 94.325 million 
acres on a range of 92.5 million to 96.4 million. On the May contract support 
is the lower Bollinger Band at $3.27, and resistance the 20-day at $3.56.


   Soybean trade is flat to 2 cents higher at midday with trade moving back 
towards the upper end of the range again with overnight buying continuing the 
recent trend, with the day session finding selling again. Meal is $0.50 to 
$1.50 higher and oil is 15 to 25 points higher. South America is continuing to 
harvest with port disruptions this biggest concern at the moment with talks of 
strikes in Argentina as well, while the Brazilian ral remains very weak. 
New-crop soybeans will need to gain vs. corn to provide an acreage incentive 
with the price ratio now at 2.4 or better as we approach early planting. The 
weekly export inspections were soft at 413,957 metric tons. The acre range on 
the report, at 84.865 million acres with the range at 82.7 ma to 87.1 ma. The 
May soybean chart support is the 20-day at 8.73, and the recent high at $8.97 
as resistance.


   Wheat trade is 3 to 6 cents lower at midday with early gains evaporating yet 
again. Weather threats remain limited for now. Russia continues to review 
export policies for the short term as well. KC is at a 77-cent discount to 
Chicago on the May with choppy trade continuing, while Minneapolis is -39 with 
wider action continuing. World export business has shifted towards Asia short 
term with weekly export inspections at 363,881 metric tons, continuing the 
recent range. On the report acres are expected at 44.982 million on a range of 
44.35 million to 46.0 million. The May Kansas City chart support is the 20-day 
at $4.69, with resistance the $5.06 upper Bollinger Band. 

   David Fiala is a DTN contributing analyst and the President of FuturesOne 
and a registered adviser. 
He can be reached at 
Follow him on Twitter @davidfiala


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